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World-Leading Tax Economist Michael Keen Examines New Zealand’s Tax Future
World-Leading Tax Economist Michael Keen Examines New Zealand’s Tax Future 1024 686 Tinaz Tata

Former IMF Deputy Director brings global perspective to critical fiscal decisions facing Aotearoa.

The Tax Policy Charitable Trust was delighted to host Michael (Mick) Keen as our 2025 visiting expert, continuing our tradition of bringing world-leading tax thinkers to New Zealand. Keen, former Deputy Director of the Fiscal Affairs Department at the International Monetary Fund, now with Tokyo College in the University of Tokyo and co-author of Rebellion, Rascals and Revenue, has advised over 40 countries on tax matters.

His visit came at a crucial moment, with Inland Revenue’s Long Term Insights Briefing highlighting projected spending increases of approximately 6% of GDP by 2060 from health and pension costs, and international tax frameworks under increasing pressure.

“New Zealand has one of the best tax systems in the world – it’s principled and you can see what it’s trying to achieve,” Keen observed. But the fiscal arithmetic is clear: difficult choices lie ahead

Wellington and Auckland Engagements

Michael Keen gives a public lecture at New Zealand Treasury in 2025

In Wellington, Mick delivered a Treasury Guest Lecture exploring how to future-proof New Zealand’s tax system in the face of rising fiscal pressures. The Trust also arranged meetings with Treasury, Inland Revenue, and politicians , where Mick discussed policy options.

In Auckland, the Trust hosted a public panel event “New Zealand’s Tax Future: Revenue, Investment and Global Challenges” where Mick presented alongside Robyn Walker (Deloitte) and Kelly Eckhold (Westpac).

The discussion explored the future of New Zealand’s tax system – from addressing revenue needs to navigating international tax pressures. Participants highlighted the urgency of reform, with projections showing debt could reach unsustainable levels approaching 190% of GDP without action. The debate ranged from the complexity of capital gains taxes (noting Australian CGT rules span 850 pages) to GST increases, which emerged as potentially efficient but with significant political constraints.

The Trust also organised roundtable discussions with leading tax practitioners, providing opportunities for in-depth technical discussions about New Zealand’s tax future.

Media Engagement

Michael Keen speaking with Jack Tame on Q+A

Keen’s insights reached broader audiences through strategic media appearances:

Key Insights

Throughout his visit, several key themes emerged from Keen’s presentations:
The Integration Challenge: Keen highlighted the inconsistency in New Zealand’s approach to capital gains taxation, arguing it deviates from the principled comprehensive income tax model the country otherwise follows.

The GST Opportunity: Keen reinforced New Zealand’s GST as world-class, and suggested this would be the first place to look if the Government was after revenue. He suggested that increasing the rate to the EU average could generate 4-4.5% of GDP in additional revenue, though compensation mechanisms for vulnerable populations require careful design.

Improving Productivity: Keen suggested that the corporate tax base was best placed to delivery productivity gains. He noted that the recent Investment Boost policy was a good example. He observed that NZ’s average effective tax rate on investment nonetheless remains high compared to the OECD average.

Capital Gains Tax? If NZ was to go to a comprehensive CGT (noting that we already tax some capital gains), Keen presented innovative solutions like accrual-equivalent capital gains schemes that could address economic distortions while maintaining administrative feasibility. Although no one had implemented a CGT in this way, Keen noted that NZ would have the capability to do this.

Taxing Wealth or Inheritance? Keen is not a fan of Wealth Taxes, and observed that other countries have voted with their feet by getting rid of them. He considers that they are ineffective, as the super wealthy can find loopholes, so only the middle group ends up paying them.

He does consider Inheritance Taxes to be superior to Wealth taxes, noting that the level at which the exemption is set is very important.

Lasting Impact

TPCT Chair Brendan Brown reflected: “You’ve done exactly what we hoped to achieve with your visit – challenged us to think about things in a different way.”

Keen offered both reassurance and challenge: “I don’t think New Zealand’s in a particularly bad position relative to others. Debt ratio is not that high and it’s not actually too hard to see where if you’re really pushed, you could raise some revenue. It’s great that New Zealand is thinking about it in a structured way – many other countries aren’t.”

The visit reinforced TPCT’s mission to ensure New Zealand benefits from leading international tax thinking. In an increasingly complex global tax environment, such exchanges are vital for developing robust, principled policies that can address our long-term fiscal challenges while maintaining what makes New Zealand’s tax system admired worldwide.

The Tax Policy Charitable Trust thanks Tax Management New Zealand, EY and Bell Gully for their support, and all participants who contributed to making Mick Keen’s visit a success.

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Emissions expert Ian Parry shares insights with NZ tax leaders 
Emissions expert Ian Parry shares insights with NZ tax leaders  2560 1707 Taxpolicy

New Zealand has been engaged in debate around emissions reduction targets and the policies needed to achieve them. Recently, the Tax Policy Charitable Trust sponsored a visit from Ian Parry, a leading international expert on climate change mitigation strategies, including carbon pricing and emissions trading schemes. 

As the Principal Environmental Fiscal Policy Expert at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Ian brings a wealth of relevant experience and research. Prior to joining the IMF in 2010, he held the prestigious Allen V. Kneese Chair in Environmental Economics at Resources for the Future, where he worked for 15 years. Ian also holds a PhD in economics from the University of Chicago, where his doctoral thesis, supervised by Nobel Laureate Gary Becker, focused on carbon taxation. 

Ian’s current research examines the economic impacts and optimal design of a wide range of environmental, energy, and transportation policies. A central focus of his work is on the critical role of fiscal instruments, such as carbon pricing, in addressing environmental externalities and generating revenue. 

During his visit to New Zealand, Ian engaged with various government departments, , to share his insights and he also delivered public lectures to tax professionals.  

In Wellington, Ian presented with James Every-Palmer from Lawyers for Climate Action to discuss the strengths and limitations of New Zealand’s carbon pricing system. In Auckland, he held a public lecture at the University of Auckland, exploring the global context of environmental challenges, the role of mitigation instruments, and ways to enhance the acceptability of such policies and broader environmental concerns. Ian concluded his presentation with observations specifically focused on Aotearoa . 

In between his various engagements, Ian was also interviewed by Radio New Zealand, discussing “How do market based carbon pricing schemes work around the world?” 

Ian’s expertise extends beyond his scholarly work. He has published over 50 papers in professional journals and authored numerous other publications, including the books “Fiscal Policy to Mitigate Climate Change: A Guide for Policymakers,” “Issues of the Day: 100 Commentaries on Environmental, Energy, Transportation, and Public Health Policy,” “Getting Energy Prices Right: From Principle to Practice,” and “Implementing a US Carbon Tax: Challenges and Debates.” 

The Tax Policy Charitable Trust has a history of bringing distinguished experts to New Zealand, with previous visiting lecturers including David Bradbury, Deputy Director for the Centre of Tax Policy and Administration at the OECD, Michael Keen, former Deputy Director of the IMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department, and Joel Slemrod, an American economist and professor of economics and public policy at the University of Michigan. 

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OECD’s David Bradbury meets with IRD, Treasury
OECD’s David Bradbury meets with IRD, Treasury 620 349 Taxpolicy

The Tax Policy Scholarship Charitable Trust recently sponsored the visit by an OECD official who met with government officials to discuss the direction of tax policy changes around the world and how New Zealand might respond to these.

David Bradbury, head of the tax policy and statistics division for the Centre of Tax Policy and Administration at the OECD and a former Australian politician, was this year’s visiting lecturer.

As part of his trip, he engaged with officials from Inland Revenue and The Treasury to discuss such issues as capital gains tax, BEPS and the digital economy. He also held meetings with the Tax Working Group.

David also spoke to tax professionals at events held in Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch. The topic of his presentation was: The direction of global tax policy changes, how New Zealand sits and challenges for the future.

It was well received by attendees.

In between his various engagements, David was interviewed by several media outlets on the aforementioned tax issues:

Further information about David Bradbury

At the OECD’s Centre for Tax Policy and Administration, David leads a team of economists, lawyers and statisticians who are focused on providing internationally comparable revenue statistics and delivering high quality economic analysis and tax policy advice.

He served in the Australian Government as the Assistant Treasurer, Minister for Competition Policy and Consumer Affairs, Minister Assisting for Financial Services and Superannuation, and Minister Assisting for Deregulation before joining the OECD in 2014.

As a minister, David led the Australian Government’s contribution to the debate on BEPS and implemented key taxation reforms including the general anti-avoidance rule (Part IVA) and the modernisation of Australia’s transfer pricing laws.

About the Tax Policy Scholarships Charitable Trust

The Tax Policy Scholarships Charitable Trust was established by Ian Kuperus and Tax Management NZ to contribute to the future development of tax policy in New Zealand.

Previous visiting lecturers it has brought to New Zealand include Michael Keen, deputy director of the IMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department, and professor of economics and public policy at the University of Michigan, Joel Slemrod.

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Joel Slemrod talks weird taxes of the past
Joel Slemrod talks weird taxes of the past 422 300 Taxpolicy

Taxes on beards, bachelors, wigs and windows.

As outlandish as these might sound, these taxes did exist at one point and were discussed recently by Robin Oliver Tax Policy Scholarships visiting lecturer and Professor of Business Economics and Public Policy at the University of Michigan’s Ross School of Business Joel Slemrod at a luncheon with a group of leading New Zealand tax professionals in Auckland.

The event, which was held at the Northern Club, was organised by the Tax Policy Scholarship Committee (TPSC).

Mr Slemrod – who was dubbed ‘The Rolling Stones’ of the tax world – talked about how farfetched taxes of the past provided lessons for tax policy today, especially how tax policy settings can drive certain behaviours.

The idea of his presentation was to highlight how the basic principles of taxation are hard to see when people are familiar with taxes or they are distracted by political rhetoric.

Attendees found his presentation to be entertaining and informative.

Mr Slemrod also spoke at Wellington’s Victoria University and the IFA Conference in Queenstown, and met with officials from Inland Revenue, Treasury and the minsters of finance and revenue during his visit to New Zealand.

About the TPSC

The TPSC was established by TMNZ and its founder director Ian Kuperus to encourage future tax policy leaders and support leading tax policy thinking in New Zealand.

The trust sponsors a leading international tax policy thinker to visit New Zealand to engage in debate and discussion, and a New Zealand tax professional to undertake research and study overseas.

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IMF figure debates global policy with future NZ tax leaders
IMF figure debates global policy with future NZ tax leaders 537 300 Taxpolicy

Around 40 young aspiring tax policy leaders discussed and debated global tax policy issues with the deputy director of the International Monetary Fund’s fiscal affairs department while he was in New Zealand last week for a two-day tax administration conference.

Michael Keen, whose visit to New Zealand as this year’s Robin Oliver Tax Policy Scholarships visiting lecturer was organised by Tax Management NZ (TMNZ), was the keynote speaker at the Tax Administration for the 21st Century Conference in Wellington.

The conference, organised by Inland Revenue, Treasury and Victoria University, was a chance for Minister of Revenue Todd McClay and leading New Zealand tax experts to share their views on future tax policy.

Prior to that, Keen engaged with future New Zealand tax policy leaders from the public and private sector at two forums in Wellington and Auckland.

Attendees were selected by their employers as being potential leaders in the field of tax policy development.

John Shewan and Geof Nightingale chaired the Wellington and Auckland sessions respectively.

As well as discussing and debating a number of tax policy topics with Keen, they also had the chance to share a meal and socialise with him afterwards.

Attendees said they enjoyed the opportunity to engage with other tax professionals at their level from other firms.

TMNZ’s founder director Ian Kuperus created the Robin Oliver Tax Policy Scholarships in 2012.

The scholarships, which recognise Oliver’s 30 years of public service leadership in tax policy, were established to inspire future tax policy leaders and support the continuation of leading tax policy thinking in New Zealand.

The scholarships committee sponsors a leading international tax policy thinker to visit New Zealand to engage in debate and discussion.

It also sponsors a New Zealand tax professional to undertake research and study.

Professor Alan Auerbach of the University of California, Berkeley was the first visiting lecturer last year.

Carolyn Palmer, the inaugural scholarship recipient, is researching the tax policy response to natural disasters such as the Christchurch earthquakes and the Queensland floods.

© 2022 Tax Policy Charitable Trust

The Tax Policy Charitable Trust was established by Tax Management New Zealand and its founder Ian Kuperus to encourage future tax policy leaders and support leading tax policy thinking in Aotearoa.

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